Wachovia analyst Marci Ryvicker has released a new, revised forecast for 2009 radio and TV revenue, cutting back on revenue estimates. Ryvicker's original prediction saw radio revenues falling by eight percent this year, but now she expects a 13 percent decline, and warns that number may even be "too optimistic."
In her analysis, Ryvicker wrote that the radio industry has "hit bottom given the various penny stocks, significant debt levels, nonexistent credit and significant revenue and EBITDA declines." She adds, "Unfortunately, however, we see no catalyst that will favorably boost the stocks until an economic and/or credit market recovery ensues."
She predicts Emmis and Saga to be the best performing radio companies in 2009, by merely hitting "high single digit revenue declines vs. the double digit declines we are anticipating for the rest of the groups." Ryvicker adds that most broadcasters will be more concerned with Wall Street delistings and avoiding bankruptcy than finding new revenue.