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FMQB Thinking Ahead!

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

New Page 2

Fred Jacobs

The Fall Fall
by Ralph Cipolla and Fred Jacobs, Jacobs Media (with special thanks to Arbitron’s John Snyder)

Six years ago this month, during a time when there was no Twitter, YouTube, or iPhones, we at Jacobs Media couldn’t help but notice that most Rock-formatted stations took a precipitous fall in the Fall. Working with Arbitron’s John Snyder, we put together a comprehensive analysis that proved that theory.             Bottom line? We learned that an insidious combination of NFL Football and Christmas music had a negative impact on many Rock stations. The sports part of the equation was no surprise; men are pro football’s core audience, so at the time, we strongly recommended that Rock stations consider becoming flagships, affiliates, or at least strong promoters of the pigskin team that best represents their town.
            The Christmas music piece was a bit more difficult to fathom and explain. But in subsequent web polls among client stations, we began to gain a better understanding of the power of holiday music on friends, families, and Rockers themselves.
            Here it is 2009, and the Radio Nation is undergoing a revolution, spearheaded by PPM electronic measurement. And with so many new markets coming on line this Fall, Arbitron’s John Snyder has once again supplied us with new data to help better understand how Rock was impacted this past autumn by PPM.
            As a precursor to our new analysis, DMR came out with a report last year that clearly indicated that Christmas music might be especially devastating to Rock stations in PPM markets. Focusing on Houston , DMR indicated that Rockers were the most vulnerable to all-holiday programming, followed distantly by News / Sports /Talk formats.

But now we have many more PPM markets active this Fall – a perfect early indicator to discover the impact of Christmas music on Rock – and other formats. The other unique feature about this quarter, of course, was the Presidential election – an event that captivated the nation. Way back in February ‘08, our fourth Tech Poll (27,000+ interviews across 69 Rock-formatted stations nationally) indicated that the election would be compelling. In fact, more than 84% of our sample said they planned to vote for the next American President.

So, how does the PPM methodology reflect Christmas music, and how do the various formats perform in the fall? Looking at 25-54 persons (AQH) across 10 metros*, we now have a broad view of the meter’s impact:

The big winner is Adult Contemporary – up 15% from October through December. (Modern Rock as a category increased 15%, too, but there are only four of these stations in the 11 PPM markets.)
            And the biggest losers are Classic Hits, Classic Rock, and Rock stations – down 18%,14%, and13% respectively. Whether in diary or PPM, Fall rating periods continue to be rough on Rock.
            It is also notable that News, Talk, and Sports stations generally incur losses, although nowhere near as pronounced as Rock, despite the huge interest in the Presidential election.
            So, the obvious conclusion is that our original analysis and the DMR Houston study carry over to the larger PPM universe. And the News/Talk/Sports formats weren’t saved by the NFL.

But drilling a bit deeper, we re-categorized stations, and came up with a different way to analyze the PPM Fall report:

For the above chart, we isolated the Christmas music stations (10 overall), the NFL affiliates (16 total), and the NPR news-formatted stations (4). For this latter group, we wanted to try to determine whether election coverage in the middle month (actually 10/16-11/12) moved the needle for NPR stations.
            Overall, the theories held up well. In fact, all-holiday music stations enjoyed a whopping 24% jump from the November to the December period. On the other hand, carrying NFL games didn’t really have a whole lot of impact ratings-wise for affiliates/flagships, while NPR news-type stations did indeed experience a healthy 8% increase from October to November, coinciding with the phase of the election.

So, what can we conclude from this first-look PPM Fall analysis?

1. If you’re a Rocker in a PPM market, you’d better enjoy the other three quarters of the year. While PPM has been a positive for many Rock-formatted stations, the early indicator is that electronic measurement clearly shows the widespread reach and power of Christmas music.

2. If you’re a Rocker in a diary market that will eventually be measured by PPM, you’ve been warned. While your diary fortunes may vary from year to year, your station’s fate in PPM appears to be pretty clear.

3. If you’re not doing a whole lot of research in today’s belt-tightening environment, don’t make any judgments on Fall books. For Rockers, it is the one quarter that is least likely to be indicative of where your station truly stands. Diving cumes, puny average quarter-hour persons, and other weaknesses are just part of the “joy” of the Fall survey period. As depressing as these books may be, they are very likely not representative of your station’s true health.

4. As was the case back in ’03, Rock stations still don’t have “the answer” to the Christmas music dilemma. Many stations have tried tactics from contesting to community promotions to even promoting not playing Christmas music. To our knowledge, most have not countered by playing wall-to-wall holiday music themselves.

5. Stations that carry NFL games may be disheartened by this report. But looking at it another way, play-by-play coverage may have softened the Christmas music effect. Considering that these stations only suffered low single-digit losses may be an indication that the NFL may have actually improved a situation that would have been otherwise negatively impacted by Christmas music.

6. Some incredible events occurred in the Fall that make this book – in both the diary and PPM worlds – even more difficult to analyze. The Presidential election, of course, was a big deal. But the financial meltdown also captivated interest during this period. Note that October 1^st was the last “good” day on The Dow; it opened at 10,847, closing on October 10^th at 8,541, a plunge of 21% in less than two weeks. We then saw huge daily swings and new lows, until the Dow hit a 5-year low on November 20^th.

            The PPM rollout will rapidly change the ratings environment, and of , , course, programming trends won’t be far behind. If Arbitron stays on their schedule, a follow-up study at this time next year will provide us with even more support for our findings as additional PPM markets come on-line.
            In the meantime, we hope you enjoyed your holidays. And thank goodness they’re over.

* PPM markets: New York , Philadelphia , Washington , D.C. , Detroit , Chicago , Houston , Dallas , Atlanta , Los Angeles , San Francisco

Fred Jacobs is President of Jacobs Media. The Southfield , Michigan based firm consults many of

America

’s most successful Classic Rock, Mainstream Rock, and Alternative stations. Fred can be reached at (248) 353-9030 or fredjacobs@jacobsmedia.com. Ralph Cipolla is not President of Jacobs Media, but he does help Fred's Southfield, Michigan-based firm consult many of

America

’s most successful Classic Rock, Mainstream Rock, and Alternative stations. Ralph can be reached at (248) 353-9030 or ralph@jacobsmedia.com. John Snyder is Arbitron's Vice President for PPM and Group Sales.